What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY breaches and closes above $755 on OPEX expiration with VIX sub-18, short-dated call seller deleveraging reverses into mechanical long-gamma repositioning, collapsing the negative-gamma regime entirely. • If NVDA holds above $210 flip-level through monthly expiration while QQQ stays pinned $706–$710, dealer short-gamma hedges convert to structural long-delta exposure, invalidating the collapse thesis and signaling rotation into mega-cap call buying. • If put/call skew at the $745–$750 SPY band inverts from current seller dominance to buyer urgency (IV rank >75th percentile on puts), institutional hedging mechanics shift from gamma-neutral positioning to tail-risk accumulation, suggesting the collapse window closes before implementation.