What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY closes above $775 for three consecutive sessions before FOMC, dealer gamma obligation unwinds faster than vega bleeding can compound, flattening the convexity premium embedded in short-dated call spreads. • If NVDA breaks above $227.50 flip level on sub-20% IV rank despite negative gamma positioning, it signals dealer hedging capacity has absorbed the short-vega load, allowing upside momentum to escape the mechanical containment structure. • If QQQ fails to hold $715 support on a Fed pause signal (rather than hike), the negative gamma regime inverts into long gamma dealer positioning, removing the downside acceleration mechanism that currently dominates 6/8 ticker behavior.