What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY sustains above $745 through FOMC without a retest of $738 support → dealer short gamma unwinds force a shift to net long convexity, breaking the mechanical sell-rally structure across all 8 tickers. • If QQQ closes below $685 and holds there for 3+ sessions while VIX stays sub-18 → negative gamma regime collapses as dealers stop fighting downside momentum, signaling a shift from forced selling to structural repositioning. • If NVDA fails to reclaim $210 on two separate attempts within 10 trading days and AAPL simultaneously breaks below $318 → the uniform gamma signature across your watchlist fragments, suggesting dealers have already hedged divergently and the synchronized negative gamma constraint no longer binds portfolio flows.