What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY closes above $775 on FOMC day and holds through Friday's close without reverting below $772 → positive gamma regime activates, dealer short positions unwind mechanically, and upside convexity accelerates through $780 resistance. • If NVDA rallies above its $227.50 flip level and QQQ simultaneously breaches $728 with expanding volume → negative gamma compression breaks, options dealers shift from short gamma hedges to long gamma positioning, stabilizing the tape into month-end. • If VIX spikes above 22 during FOMC announcement while SPY fails to recapture $768 → gamma inversion deepens across the 5/8 negative regime tickers, creating a structural floor where dealer rehedging intensifies selling pressure rather than providing support.