What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY holds above $745 through FOMC announcement and closes within 1% of that level → gamma skew flips positive as dealers reduce short hedges, eliminating the mechanical unwind catalyst that defined this regime. • If QQQ breaks $680 on a single session close with volume >120M shares → negative gamma compression accelerates into forced liquidation territory, moving structural risk from capitulation scenario into realized dealer deleveraging. • If NVDA closes above $220 flip level before FOMC while IV percentile falls below 30th → short gamma positioning in mega-cap tech becomes self-hedging rather than destabilizing, fundamentally changing dealer flow mechanics across the entire watchlist.