What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY closes above $745 on FOMC hold and gamma rolls positive across 6+ names → dealer short hedges flip to long, reversing amplification into cushioning and removing the mechanical downside accelerant. • If NVDA breaks below $200 while QQQ holds above $680 → negative gamma becomes localized to mega-cap rather than systemic, suggesting rotation rather than broad deleveraging and allowing other names to stabilize. • If implied volatility compresses below 12% on SPY post-FOMC while skew flattens → dealer gamma exposure normalizes as vega hedging reduces short positioning, structural amplification unwinds regardless of directional move.