What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY sustains above $745 through FOMC close with QQQ above $685 → dealer short gamma positions become unprofitable, forcing mechanical rehedging into strength and inverting the hangry-tape dynamic entirely. • If NVDA breaks $212 on positive earnings revision flow before decision → nvidia-heavy quant funds rotate into long convexity, collapsing the 7-of-8 underwater hedge ratio and removing the structural bid-suppression mechanism. • If AAPL drops through the $310 flip level and stays there post-FOMC → portfolio insurance triggers cascade selling, converting dealer short gamma from a technical constraint into an acceleration vector that negates the pre-trap setup.