What Would Change My Mind

• If QQQ closes above the $735 flip level on FOMC decision day and sustains it through Friday close → dealer gamma flipping from short to long structure eliminates the amplification mechanism, converting dealer hedging into absorption bias that dampens volatility regime. • If NVDA breaks above its $230 flip concurrent with SPY holding $770 support while six names remain pinned → positive gamma concentration isolates to mega-cap subset, fragmenting the synchronized short-gamma prison and creating two-tier gamma structure where sector rotation becomes the dominant tape dynamic. • If implied volatility contracts below 12.5% post-FOMC despite outcome surprise (either direction) while SPY, QQQ, AAPL all fail to break their pinned ranges → dealer short gamma persists but loses mechanical power as vol crush eliminates the leverage that amplifies moves, shifting regime from structure-dependent to fundamental-dependent price discovery.