What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY holds above $770 through NFP and QQQ reclaims $720+ on positive jobs data → gamma profile flips positive, dealer short-hedging unwinds, and convexity becomes a rally accelerant rather than a speed bump. • If AAPL breaks above $330 while negative gamma still dominates → retail call buyers outpace dealer gamma neutrality, creating a mismatch where dealer selling pressure can't contain upside momentum, suggesting structural vulnerability is overstated. • If NVDA closes below $225 on earnings miss and drags mega-cap volatility to 22+ on the VIX → negative gamma compresses into a vicious cycle, but simultaneous move into defensive positioning could trigger systematic dealer de-hedging that actually stabilizes the structure.