What Would Change My Mind

• SPY breaks below $773 and fails to recapture on NFP day → gamma flip to negative across equity complex, dealer short positioning reverses from hedging to mechanical selling into weakness • QQQ closes below the $705 flip level on a Fed-sensitive macro print → tech gamma unwinds, NVDA and AAPL convexity losses accelerate as options dealers de-gross long delta exposure • NVDA closes above $220 flip for 3 consecutive sessions while VIX contracts below 16 → positive gamma regime hardens into structural dominance, dealer long gamma becomes self-reinforcing through earnings cycle