What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY sustains above $775 flip through CPI release without dealer rehedging mechanics engaging, negative gamma thesis fractures and structural risk shifts from asymmetric downside acceleration to mean reversion consolidation. • If NVDA breaks above $220 inflection concurrent with QQQ holding $725+ while implied volatility contracts sub-20 vega, dealer pin hypothesis reverses into short gamma relief and tail hedging demand evaporates. • If CPI prints hotter than consensus yet equities gap up through all four reference levels (SPY $775, QQQ $725, AAPL $310, NVDA $220) simultaneously, bond/equity correlation regime inversion signals dealers no longer carry asymmetric short convexity exposure.