What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY closes below $770 for three consecutive sessions before OPEX → dealer gamma flips negative across the entire SPX strip, forcing mechanical deleveraging into weekly expiration. • If QQQ breaks $725 while NVDA holds above $225 → structural decoupling emerges where mega-cap concentration breaks but semiconductor support holds, signaling rotation risk rather than systemic selloff. • If AAPL reclaims $310 while SPY remains capped at $776 → leadership bifurcation intensifies, with large-cap defensives outpacing cyclicals and suggesting duration repricing rather than risk-asset capitulation.