What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY closes above the $787 flip level on two consecutive days before OPEX → negative gamma thesis inverts; dealer short positions unwind mechanically and momentum accelerates upside through resistance, invalidating mean-reversion setup. • If QQQ breaks below $715 with volume surge while IVR100 remains depressed → gamma structure shifts from pinning to acceleration; dealer hedging becomes asymmetrically long and tail-risk premium collapses into expiration. • If NVDA sustains a close above $221 flip while AAPL simultaneously holds above $305 flip → concentrated tech gamma turns positive and correlations tighten; negative gamma dominance across the 5/8-name cohort fragments, structural thesis loses coherence.