What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY sustains a close above 768 with VIX compression below 12.5, dealer short vega unwinds mechanically and negative gamma trap inverts to positive gamma dominance, eliminating the directional amplification thesis. • If NVDA breaks and holds above 222.50 while QQQ fails to follow (stays below 717), sector rotation evidence emerges that contradicts the broad negative gamma structure and suggests selective dealer hedging rather than systematic short vega positioning. • If IVR100 reverts to positive territory across 4+ holdings while implied volatility term structure flattens, the regime shifts from dealer-driven compression to realized volatility repricing, making the gamma amplification mechanism structurally dormant.