What Would Change My Mind

2026-08-25 · Counter-thesis
• If QQQ breaks above $720 flip on three consecutive closes with realized vol staying compressed below 14, dealer short-vega position flips to net long and gamma trap unwinds into forced covering rather than continuation selling. • If NVDA holds $211 support while SPY drops through $760 without closing below it, negative gamma divergence between mega-cap and broad market signals regime rotation from synchronized compression to sector-specific deleveraging. • If AAPL breaches $310 flip on volume exceeding 90M shares in a single session while VIX stays sub-18, dealer rehedging mechanics shift from continuous small-lot hedges to discrete block-level recalibration, fundamentally altering intraday liquidity provision.