What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY breaks below $760 and closes there for two consecutive sessions before NFP → negative gamma regime collapses as dealer short-gamma positions unwind mechanically, forcing vol sellers to hedge long rather than punish consolidation. • If QQQ rallies to $725 and holds above the 20-day MA while IVR compresses below 30 across the nameplate → positive gamma re-emerges as call spreads flip from liability to hedge, inverting the current short-vol penalty structure that rewards consolidation trades. • If NVDA closes above the $225 flip level on volume exceeding 90th percentile while VIX stays below 16 through NFP week → momentum gamma overtakes event gamma, signaling dealer inventory has rotated from short gamma equities to long, fundamentally altering the tape's punishment mechanism.