What Would Change My Mind

2026-09-06 · Counter-thesis
• If QQQ closes above the $749.00 flip level on three consecutive sessions before CPI → dealer short gamma unwinds mechanically, forcing long positioning and reducing volatility compression risk across mega-cap tech. • If NVDA breaks and holds above $225.00 flip with IVR contracting below 30th percentile → semiconductor gamma reverts positive, signaling institutional accumulation and breaking the negative gamma dominance across the 5/8 ticker complex. • If SPY tests $770 and closes below $765 on elevated put/call skew inversion → dealer hedging accelerates into CPI uncertainty, shifting gamma structure from short to long and amplifying downside liquidity demands.