What Would Change My Mind

• If QQQ closes above $745 flip for three consecutive sessions before CPI → gamma regime inverts to positive convexity, dealer hedging reverses from amplification to dampening, and the mechanical short-squeeze mechanics unwind. • If NVDA breaks below $230 flip while SPY holds above $770 → negative gamma concentrates in mega-cap tech names, creating bifurcated volatility where single-name hedging flows decouple from broad index dynamics and systematic rebalancing triggers forced selling in correlated positions. • If CPI prints hotter than consensus and SPY immediately holds $770 on the first retest (no break below) → dealer gamma short positioning becomes profitable without covering, eliminating the directional urgency that powers the current volatility amplification regime and collapsing the thesis into range-bound mean reversion.