What Would Change My Mind

• If CPI prints >0.4% MoM tomorrow and SPY closes below $758 on first test, negative gamma regime cascades into dealer forced selling as portfolio insurance triggers, collapsing the bid into $750 support where gamma inflects positive. • If NVDA breaks above $227.50 flip level with IVR compression to 72 or below across the six names, dealer short gamma unwinds mechanically and structural short-vol positioning reverses, signaling regime shift to positive gamma dominance before FOMC. • If QQQ holds $716 through FOMC but implied volatility structure inverts (front-end IV >back-end IV for first time in 8 days), dealer hedging becomes unanchored and gamma neutrality breaks, forcing rebalance into whichever direction fills the vol term structure gap.