What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY sustains a close above $765 post-FOMC with VIX compression below 14, negative gamma positioning unwinds into dealer long covering rather than forced selling, reversing the asymmetric downside amplification structure. • If QQQ breaks decisively below $700 on FOMC guidance and fails to recapture that level within two hours, the mechanical hedging cascade from dealer short gamma becomes self-reinforcing, with $685 representing the next structural inflection where rebalancing demand could accelerate. • If NVDA closes between $215-$218 through OPEX expiration (3 days) while implied volatility stays elevated above 45%, short call gamma pinning breaks down and the $213-$235 range widens into a genuine two-way flow regime, eliminating the asymmetric dealer-flow amplification thesis.