What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY sustains a close above $770 with IVR compressing below 60, dealer short gamma unwinds mechanically and positive convexity returns to the broad tape, reversing the negative-gamma regime. • If QQQ breaks below $715 on volume exceeding 65M shares and NVDA fails to hold $220, the short-gamma structure cascades into forced dealer re-hedging, creating an inflection toward realized volatility expansion. • If AAPL breaks $332 while SPY holds above $760, the negative-gamma thesis fractures because single-name decay detaches from index convexity, signaling heterogeneous dealer positioning rather than correlated short gamma across the complex.