What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY closes below $768 for three consecutive sessions before NFP → megacap bid breakdown becomes structural, forcing rotation capital into defensive positioning rather than tactical bounce-hunting. • If QQQ breaks $744 while NVDA holds above $226 → liquidity decouples from narrative, indicating concentrated forced selling in index futures absent conviction in semiconductor fundamentals. • If AAPL closes $336 or lower while SPY holds $771+ → bifurcation inverts into concentration risk, meaning 4-positive regime masks dangerous crowding into narrower defensives ahead of jobs data.