What Would Change My Mind

• If QQQ closes below $740 flip for two consecutive sessions into NFP → dealer short gamma accelerates below $735, forcing mechanical liquidation in mega-cap tech and cascading into SPY support at $765. • If NVDA holds above $230 inflection and SPY sustains $770+ through jobs report → fragmented conviction shifts to structural risk-on, breaking the semis/value deadlock and pulling QQQ through $754 resistance into new regime territory. • If VIX contracts below 14 while SPY and QQQ diverge (SPY holding, QQQ rolling over) → dealer positioning unwinds as hedges become redundant, exposing the fragmentation as temporary rather than structural constraint.