What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY closes above $770 on NFP day with implied vol contracting below 60th percentile → dealer short vega unwind forces synthetic long repositioning, flipping the negative gamma regime into positive gamma dominance across the tape. • If NVDA breaks above $230 flip while QQQ remains below $739 → stock-specific gamma becomes decoupled from index structure, suggesting institutional accumulation independent of macro positioning and invalidating the broad negative gamma thesis. • If AAPL fails to recapture $340 resistance after NFP and closes below $325 → dealer gamma hedging accelerates downside momentum as synthetic short positions cascade, extending the negative gamma regime beyond the two-day macro event window into structural weakness.