What Would Change My Mind

• If QQQ breaks below $758 on volume >120M shares and fails to recapture within 48 hours → gamma-long positioning unwinds into dealer short hedging, forcing tech concentration to decompress and broadening sector rotation inward. • If NVDA closes below $235 while SPY holds above $778 → dispersion widens between mega-cap momentum and equal-weight structure, signaling gamma advantage has inverted and systematic rebalancing flows shift from tech support to sector rebalance. • If SPY flips $780 resistance on three consecutive closes while QQQ remains trapped between $758-$762 → positive gamma regime fractures into two-speed market where large-cap tech decouples from participation breadth, invalidating the bifurcation thesis entirely.