What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY sustains above $782 through CPI print while QQQ fails to clear $760 → negative gamma concentration rotates from mega-cap tech to broader market, invalidating the knife-edge fragility thesis and signaling structural decoupling rather than washout. • If NVDA closes below $220 on any single session before OPEX → gamma flip accelerates across the 5/8 negative names simultaneously, creating a cascade condition where dealer rehedging amplifies rather than absorbs downside momentum. • If IVR13 compresses below 30 while VIX remains elevated above 18 → safety valve thesis breaks because positive gamma in SPY becomes insufficient to absorb rollover risk, suggesting hidden tail positioning rather than benign pre-event setup.