What Would Change My Mind

• QQQ breaks below $745 on first CPI miss print and holds sub-$740 through OPEX expiration → dealer short gamma position forces mechanical de-hedging, negative convexity cascades into forced selling that overwhelms bid support. • NVDA sustains a close above $232 with IV rank climbing back above 65 before monthly OPEX → positive gamma re-emerges in mega-cap tech, dealer long convexity flips the tape structure and breaks the current asymmetric pressure regime. • SPY holds $779 resistance on three separate touches into CPI release while VIX contracts below 16 → negative gamma thesis loses structural friction, suggesting dealer positioning has already rotated and tail risk hedging becomes less mechanical.