What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY sustains above $782 through CPI release and closes OPEX above $785, negative gamma unwinds into dealer deleveraging, flipping the hedging flow from amplification to suppression across the portfolio. • If NVDA breaks and holds above $232 while QQQ remains sub-$748, the correlation collapse between mega-cap and semiconductor positioning signals regime fragmentation has already begun, invalidating the synchronized negative gamma thesis. • If VIX prints below 14 at OPEX settlement despite maintaining negative gamma positioning, it indicates dealer gamma risk is being absorbed by retail/systematic sellers rather than amplified, suggesting the amplification structure has already exhausted.