What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY closes above $780.00 and holds through CPI release with IVR compressing below 60, negative gamma unwind reverses into dealer long positioning, eliminating the operative constraint and flattening realized volatility structure. • If NVDA breaks decisively above $230.00 on earnings flow ahead of OPEX and establishes new structural support there with gamma-positive call skew, the 5/6 negative convexity regime fragments, forcing rebalance of the sector hedging thesis. • If QQQ collapses below $740 on CPI surprise and IVR spikes above 85 while put skew remains inverted, mechanical dealer short-gamma hedging cascades into synthetic long equity exposure, inverting the negative convexity narrative into a volatility-driven liquidity event.