What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY closes above $775 on OPEX expiry with IV rank compressed below 75, positive gamma dealers flip to long convexity and violent repricing risk reverses toward upside acceleration rather than dealer short-squeeze unwind. • If NVDA breaks above $220 while QQQ remains range-bound below $730, the negative gamma concentration shifts from broad market to single-name idiosyncratic flow, reducing systemic dealer hedging pressure and fragmenting the unified convexity trigger. • If VIX spikes to 22+ intraday but SPY holds $768 without follow-through selling, gamma squeeze mechanics fail to ignite and dealer short positioning becomes a false signal—structural support from systematic vol sellers dominates over dealer hedging flows.