What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY sustains a close above $768 with QQQ breaking $715 simultaneously → dealer short-gamma repositioning flips from mechanical selling to forced rebalancing, collapsing the negative-gamma regime's structural anchor. • If NVDA holds $220 inflection on three separate touch attempts within five trading days → mega-cap concentration risk premia compresses and rotational flows into lagging names neutralize the uniform negative-gamma positioning across the eight-name complex. • If a macro catalyst (Fed pivot signal, CPI surprise, geopolitical event) emerges mid-week that forces 10Y yields below 4.1% → negative convexity unwinds fastest in rate-sensitive mega-caps (AAPL, MSF) where dealer hedges become directionally positive, destabilizing the pervasive short-gamma thesis.