What Would Change My Mind

• If QQQ sustains a close above $735 for three consecutive sessions ahead of FOMC → positive gamma reflexivity re-enters the structure, reducing mechanical dealer deleveraging pressure and stabilizing the negative convexity regime. • If NVDA breaks and holds above the $235 flip level with expanding IV rank below 40th percentile → individual name gamma shifts from short to long, decoupling mega-cap from broad negative gamma cohesion and fragmenting the correlated downside signal. • If VIX compresses below 14 while SPY remains trapped between $765–$775 → dealer short gamma positions flatten into reduced hedging demand, inverting the tape's current unforgiving character and removing the mechanical bid-withdrawal mechanism that has defined this regime.