What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY rallies to $786.00 flip and holds above it through FOMC with IVR dropping below 85, dealer short gamma unwinds mechanically and positive gamma regime emerges across the portfolio. • If NVDA breaks above $255.00 flip while QQQ remains below $740, mega-cap concentration risk decouples from broad tech and narrows the negative gamma footprint to only 3-4 core holdings instead of all eight. • If IVR remains pinned above 110 through Friday's FOMC with SPY unable to reclaim $775 resistance, dealers expand short gamma hedges and volatility expansion becomes structural rather than priced-in expectation.