What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY closes above $765 on three consecutive sessions before FOMC → dealer short-gamma unwind accelerates and forces mechanical rehedging into strength, inverting the capitulation setup entirely. • If NVDA breaks above $220 with volume >50M shares while QQQ remains below $710 → individual mega-cap gamma structure decouples from broad negative regime, suggesting selective de-risking rather than systemic dealer positioning crisis. • If the 10Y yield falls below 4.15% in the five days leading to FOMC → real rate expectations shift lower, reducing the structural incentive for dealer short-gamma hedges and potentially stabilizing the eight-name lock.