What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY breaks below $758 and closes there for two consecutive sessions → negative gamma trap inverts to positive, dealers shift from forced sellers to buyers, mechanical support structure reverses. • If QQQ reclaims $712 with volume spike above 60M shares and holds through FOMC without pullback → gamma dynamic weakens, dealer hedging becomes discretionary rather than mechanical, thesis loses structural tailwind. • If NVDA fails to approach $250 flip zone and instead consolidates $205-$215 for 3+ days ahead of FOMC → conviction in convexity suppression signals dealer positioning may have already shifted, negative gamma dominance becomes transitory rather than structural regime.