What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY closes above $770 post-FOMC while QQQ remains below $715, dealer gamma flips positive in mega-cap names as short call hedges become unprofitable, forcing systematic deleveraging of the negative convexity trap. • If NVDA breaks and holds above $225 flip while AAPL stays pinned below $355, the mega-cap dispersion widens enough to fragment dealer hedging clusters, leaving isolated gamma pockets that can no longer coordinate systematic rehedges. • If the FOMC delivers a hawkish hold and SPY immediately tests $760 support without breaking it, the negative gamma compression deepens rather than releasing, locking the market into a lower-volatility range where dealer inventories remain structurally short and rehedging pressure intensifies on any intraday move beyond 1.2%.