What Would Change My Mind

• If QQQ closes above $725 post-FOMC with IV crush below 18 — negative gamma reverses to positive skew, dealer short gamma positions unwind mechanically, and bid-side volatility support emerges instead of forced selling cascades. • If NVDA breaks above $217.50 resistance on Fed hold or cut signal while SPY holds $770 — the two-name tech anchor flips from gamma drag to gamma lift, dealer rehedging demand shifts from equity futures sales to index call purchases, reshaping intraday flow mechanics. • If SPY gaps down to $765 or lower on hawkish FOMC surprise with QQQ falling below $715 simultaneously — the six-ticker negative gamma complex compresses faster than dealer gamma hedges can scale, creating a structural floor where systematic selling exhausts rather than a feedback loop amplifying downside.