What Would Change My Mind

2026-10-29 · Counter-thesis
• If NVDA closes above $217.50 and holds it through tomorrow's open with IVR rising above 25, dealer short gamma unwinds sharply and forces mechanical long positioning across the QQQ complex, flipping the negative-gamma regime. • If SPY breaks below $768 on a second touch without a hold and closes outside that level, the six-of-eight negative-gamma cluster tightens into forced selling, pushing QQQ structural support test toward $715. • If AAPL rolls through $343 with volume expansion while NVDA remains pinned below $216, the dispersion between mega-cap momentum names signals gamma compression is locking rather than releasing, extending the negative regime through end-of-week.