What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY closes above $758 and holds there through Friday NFP without fresh put accumulation below $745, the dealer short gamma unwind loses structural urgency and repositioning pressure shifts from mechanical to discretionary. • If QQQ rallies to $695+ while NVDA simultaneously breaches $210 without triggering fresh hedging demand in the $200-$205 band, the assumed correlation between mega-cap momentum and dealer convexity stress decouples, invalidating the pinned-short thesis. • If the $740 SPY put block ($142M notional) gets absorbed by real buyers at profitable levels rather than forced liquidation, it signals institutional conviction in downside floors exists independently of dealer positioning, weakening the negative gamma cascade scenario.