What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY sustains a close above $752 for 3 consecutive sessions while VIX contracts below 14, dealer short-gamma unwind accelerates and negative-gamma regime collapses into positive convexity feedback loops. • If NVDA breaks and holds above $215 flip level concurrent with QQQ recapturing $685, the entire cohort's gamma imbalance reverses as dealer hedging shifts from mechanical selling into rebalancing buys, eliminating the synchronized negative-gamma structure. • If NFP misses consensus by >150K jobs in 2 days and 10Y yields drop 15bps in the opening 30 minutes, vol-of-vol compression triggers immediate gamma reallocation across SPY, QQQ, and MSFT, fragmenting the 8/8 negative-gamma lockup.