What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY closes above $770 flip on NFP print and holds through Friday close, dealer short-gamma unwind reverses to long-gamma regime, flipping the marginal bid from forced support to structural selling pressure. • If IVR compresses below 70 across four or more names (SPY, QQQ, NVDA, AMD) before CPI release despite negative-gamma setup, dealer hedging enters decay phase and the current pain narrative dissolves into mean-reversion positioning. • If QQQ breaks below $689 on volume spike during NFP volatility but recovers within 24 hours without closing below $680, gamma crowding intensifies rather than releases, extending dealer squeeze into next week's CPI event.