What Would Change My Mind

• If SPY breaks below $768 and closes there post-CPI with VIX staying sub-16, negative gamma thesis inverts as dealer short-gamma positions unwind mechanically into bid, reversing convexity structure across the complex. • If QQQ rallies through its $733 flip and sustains above it with NVDA clearing $220 simultaneously, dealer long-gamma hedging cascades upward, forcing the mega-cap tech short-convexity regime into positive territory and invalidating the washout setup. • If AAPL decisively breaks above its $315 inflection on earnings-driven vol expansion while AMD remains stuck below $470, idiosyncratic rotation away from market-beta gamma risk emerges, fragmenting the unified negative-gamma narrative that currently ties the watchlist together.