Bridge Trading Daily Brief
2026-08-13 · Educational market structure · all data as of last market close
Negative gamma dominant
6/8 watchlist names in negative-gamma territory.
Today's read
The broad market is priced into a contraction regime heading into today's CPI release, with SPY and AAPL showing depressed implied volatility (IVR 85 and 78 respectively) despite macro sensitivity, while mega-cap tech shows a bifurcated structure—NVDA and MSFT are trading elevated IV (51 and 67) against a backdrop of QQQ compression at IVR 45, suggesting crowded positioning in the Nasdaq. The absence of unusual flow into either tail protection or aggressive directional bets indicates market participants are largely neutral ahead of the headline print, leaving intraday execution heavily dependent on the magnitude and composition of the CPI surprise relative to terminal-rate expectations.
What Would Change My Mind
Share this card →• If CPI prints hotter than 3.3% YoY and SPY breaks above $775 on the move → gamma flips from negative to positive in megacaps, removing the mechanical seller constraint that has pinned the complex.
• If QQQ fails to hold $727 on a retest and closes below $720 → negative gamma acceleration compounds, forcing systematic deleveraging across tech-weighted portfolios and widening the bid-ask spread in $300+ AAPL strikes.
• If NVDA breaks below $215 while VIX stays range-bound (16-18) → dealer short gamma exposure in mega-cap tech disconnects from broader market hedging, creating asymmetric downside unwind risk in concentrated positions.
Watchlist snapshot
| Ticker | Spot | GEX regime | IV rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $772.50 | negative | 85% |
| QQQ | $722.36 | negative | 45% |
| NVDA | $223.77 | positive | 51% |
| AAPL | $301.50 | negative | 78% |
| MSFT | $490.00 | positive | 67% |
| AMD | $483.21 | negative | 42% |
| TSLA | $326.98 | negative | 32% |
| META | $578.80 | negative | 70% |
Educational pattern examples
No notable patterns detected today.
Macro calendar
| Date | Event | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | 📊 CPI Release | cpi |
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